The Angels signed three and lost three (Major Players) in the offseason, adding Paul Byrd, Steve Finley and Orlando Cabrera whilst saying “Au Revoir” to Angel hero’s Troy Glaus, Troy Percival and David Eckstein. So how did we do? This article (in three parts), sets out to answer this question from an economic and statistical perspective.
Baseball Propsectus published their PECOTA stats for 2005 earlier in the season, and I’ll cover those in a later article. Meanwhile, yesterday they published a comparison between the PECOTA projection and the salary. They did this by taking the performance projected for the player over that of your average player, and then comparing that to the salary paid to them, over and above the minimum MLB salary of $316,000.
Looking first at the players the Angels signed. Paul Byrd only signed a 1 year deal, paying him $5m. That $5m is $4.68m over that of a replacement player. PECOTA projects his 2005 season to have a WARP (Wins above replacement player) of 3.1, which works out to be a cost of $1.5m per win. The average $/win as quoted by Baseball Prospectus is $2.14m, meaning the Angels show a “profit” of $1.9m from this transaction.
Steve Finley’s two year, $13m contract gives him 7.1 WARP over the time of the deal, at an average of $1.84m per win, giving the Halos a profit of $2.1m on this deal. Meanwhile, Orlando Cabrera’s 4 year, $28m contract is expected to gain the Angels 13.3 WARP, for a total of $2.15m per win, about the major league standard, resulting in the Angels showing a “loss” of $0.1m on Cabrera’s contract.
Next time, a look at the players the Angels let get away…